Target $18.72, page-1892

From TER Research Report
Thermal coal outlook
While it is difficult to see a scenario where thermal coal markets return to the price levels seen at the peak of 2022,
however, it is equally as difficult to see them returning to the lows of 2016 or 2020. As the chart below summarises,
thermal coal demand is increasing globally. Despite what many people believe, a reduction in coal fired electricity
generation is not happening in any meaningful way. The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that coal phase out
commitments currently only account for 3% of global coal power generation. Thermal coal isn’t under dire threat just
yet.
The IEA forecasts global coal consumption to be flat in 2023 compared to 2022. However, they have commented
recently that uncertainty is increasing and that coal markets are expected to remain tight over 2023 with both China
and India expected to increase consumption by 1% and 3% respectively. The increases in those two countries will
exceed the reductions forecast for the rest of the world.