The western world supply side continues to be hampered by a lack of capital – driven primarily by the push for
renewable energy. This has meant that, unlike past cycles, this period of high prices will not drive growth in new
project development. The effect of that is unclear but it is likely that longer term prices for coal will be supported above
the US$150/tonne (Newcastle 6000kCal) for some time.
Figure 3: Supply side - Seaborne exports waterfall chart: 2020-2022 (Source: IEA)
We have revised our coal price assumptions since the last update to reflect market conditions. As can be seen below,
our forecasts remain around A$50/tonne below what is currently being observed in global futures trading (gC Swap
Newc). We currently forecast Newcastle benchmark prices to level out to approximately A$350/tonne (US$225/tonne)by the beginning of Q1 Calendar year 2025.
Microsoft Word - Terracom Nov22 Update V1[6313][6318].docx (*********.com.au)
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