Target $18.72, page-2132

@tripster

It is in the ballpark taking into account moderate buy back expectations. WHC pay-out ratio is currently 50% (including buyback equivalent per share) of NPAT. It is optimistic to expect that the pay-out ratio will change to 90% or more, but it could given the sheer amount of cash being generated.

WHC expects Winchester South to require $1B in capital investment and Vickery would need $700M. Both are expected to be completed within the next few years so we may see the company holding large cash reserves to self-fund these projects. From my experience, large construction projects cost more and take longer to develop than initially planned. This seems to be in the case 90% of the time due to variations, labour constraints, activism, equipment manufacturing delays, supply bottlenecks etc etc..

Bell Potters dividend expectation of $1 for the full year is realistic, if not conservative. Anything more than that is gravy. The company would do well to maintain a 10% yield y-o-y.