Australia Indonesia are two major exporters of thermal and coking coal. Australian exports are principally high quality 6K coal and target markets are Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Indonesian coal is lower CV and high moisture content coal and target market are India, China(after Australia ban by China), Bangladesh and other south Asian countries.
Last year in January Indonesia put restrictions on export of coal and asked the coal exporters to meet the domestic obligations first. This action created an uncertainty and international coal prices crossed USD 300 and since Ukrainian warl in Feb/March it has become a floor price for 6K coal.
Any intervention by Australia will create an artificial shortage and may create USD 400 as the floor price. Australian Govt is already making huge revenues from royalty and tax on profits. It may risk the export market for Australian coal in long term and may hamper new investments. Coal has been wrongfully made a skapegoat for scarcity in the energy market. War, demand increase post covid, lack of investment in new projects and artificially super imporpossition of renewable targets are some of the key reasons for this energy sector turbulence. Stay invested in the sector as this are super cycle for energy sector.
DYOR
Australia Indonesia are two major exporters of thermal and...
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