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Agree there are some great views here, there is technical expertise (some here clearly have decades in this space) and financial acumen. I've greatly enjoyed it (the excursions into politics aside)."
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Yes, this is a cracker thread/forum. The long/short time frame is entirely dependent on outlook. It's partially psychological and partly dependent on position sizing/strategy as to which view one takes.
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Myself takes a decade/century long view of coal, although sometimes I get clouded with short term noise as I'm using leverage on a portion of my holdings. I probably shouldn't leverage, although, positives and negatives and feeling vibes of the market make it a net positive move IMHO. My long term holding view isn't as detailed as some here who are genius with their approach. I'm well aware and have followed loosely the whc history since inception with Tinkler and the end of the last boom in 2010-2012. I saw back the history of the 2000s super cycle and have tried to learn from that... I'm now trying to ride the short term super cycle, which will be, IMHO, all of this decade.
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We saw the cycle after 2012 start again in 2016 and fall in 2019 (politically caused by trump/Ukraine). I watched closely the recapitalisation of CRN and kicked myself for not riding WHC from 2016 through to 2019,but the overall market vibe wasn't there for me to jump in deep. It was CRN that didn't give full value and had a poor vibe. This changed in mid/late 2000 when all coal stocks be smashed and it was like alarm bells and 2015/2016 again. Mines were literally running at a loss to move through the cycle. So in later half of 2020 I started buying up coal stocks from a value investment viewpoint. The long/short term view wasn't really there.
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As to the "political" perspective, it's impossible to ignore with coal. Myself, along with others love to hate it. I'm probably more guilty than most for getting moderated, but, the mods do a great job keeping us on track and allowing us to post. It's better here than on other forums which ban people for pointing out that the religion of climate change has issues with their core dogma... and their core dogma is anti-coal... and it's wrong... and it's political... and it not science... and it's "the science"... and it's long term... and it's very important to understanding how coal is going to experience a boom like never before. The politics, IMHO, from a long term and broad perspective, rolls on to a marxist revolution (green renewable transition) in the West that is akin to Maos great leap forward... and avoiding the horrors of starvation and death camps. Hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) are essential for modern life and removing them without a replacement will kill untold tens of millions, possibly hundreds of millions. It's not simple sky news verses their ABC... there's so much more behind the political narrative.
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Technical coal perspectives, this forum has some awesome contributors with real world hands on experience. In coal there's quite a few here on this forum, but in life we don't get to see each other due to the remoteness, time frames and lack of personnel in industry. Those with 20-40+ years are diamonds here... We don't exist in large numbers and real world demand for our skills takes us away from hot copper and out into the field/pit/underground... so feel privileged when these people post here, our time is limited. This lack of skills will also drive the boom in coal as it limits the supply response... big time.
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TLDR; coal good, buy and hold.
(20min delay)