Target $18.72, page-2845

1. This is the 14.12.22 full Goldman Sachs 2023 Commodities Outlook, as referenced by my posts on 19.12.
It expects commodity prices to increase by c. 43% in 2023; but not Lithium, & other battery minerals, which it expects to decline (see page 2, for latter).

FWIW, I doubt commodities will rise as high as 43%- probably a lower % increase; & IMO, battery minerals' prices will have good price increases in 2023.

"No supply response in sight. While markets are divesting today , what’s more
startling is the lack of investment in commodities for tomorrow. Importantly, the
majority of the commodity deflation (in mid 2022- my words) came from central bankers raising the cost
of capital and draining market liquidity, both physically and financially, which is
not a long-term fundamental solution. Without sufficient capex to create spare
supply capacity, commodities will remain stuck in a state of long run shortages,
with higher and more volatile prices. While investors remain concerned with the
2023 growth outlook – a large driver of the latest sell off – the global business
cycle is far from over. Our economists argue that global economic growth is set
to rebound with China seeing the reopening happening today, Europe improving
its energy efficiency in a one-off decline in industrial activity and a slowing of the
aggressive Fed rate hikes in the US. These underpin our expectation that
commodities (S&P GSCI TR) will return 43% in 2023"

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/2023-commodity-outlook-an-underinvested-supercycle/report.pdf
(Warning- Long Read)



2. India strongly increased its thermal coal use in 2022- & further increases are expected in 2023.

The Hindu 19.11.22 said

"India's coal-fired power output increased more than 10% year-on-year from March to October to 757.82 terawatt hours, an analysis of government data shows, as electricity demand increased off the back of a heatwave and pickup in economic activity. The government expects this output to grow at the fastest pace in at least a decade in the current fiscal year ending March 2023."

https://www.thehindu.com/business/indias-power-units-binge-on-coal-outpace-asia/article66157969.ece

It has been reported that the higher use of air conditioning, world-wide, is greatly contributing to the need/demand for more power.