1. A. Behm, a Foreign Policy expert (link below states he was once employed to advise ALP's Penny Wong on Foreign Policy matters), stated 24.12.22 it is likely there will soon be a gradual, low key lifting, by China, of its unofficial trade ban against Australia.
It is also gratifying that the Federal Dept. of Resources has predicted that coal in 2023 will become Australia's biggest export earner, to $133b.
(Memo to Govts. : Don't Kill The Golden Goose)https://www.miningreview.com.au/coal-will-be-australias-number-one-export-says-authority/If China restores its usual Australian imports, inc. coal, much more competition for WHC's coal, of course, will significantly raise prices. This will be a big boost for WHC's SP.
Furthermore, China a few weeks ago reversed its severe lockdowns/zero covid policies- which will result in it becoming, again, the world's biggest importer of energy (its energy imports dropped 22% in 2022- to the lowest level in 20 years).
Many analysts have stated (see my previous links), however, the big increase in China's energy imports will only occur in mid 2023- China's major increase in covid infections etc., after cancelling its zero-covid policy etc., will stall its economic rebound/demand for energy.2. The AFR, A. Tillet M. Smith, 21.12.22 also report that signals from China also suggest it will be gradually lifting its unofficial trade bans (costing Australia c. $20b pa in exports), via "bureaucratic" only announcements ie bans will be lifted without much fanfare from China, so are "face-saving" for China."Australia China Business Council president David Olsson said there was nothing concrete in terms of affected exports being confirmed they could go back into China, but there had been some stirrings.
“What our members are reporting is that over the last month or so, many of their Chinese partners [distributors etc] have been reconnecting. We are watching to see if this translates into actual new deals,” he said.
Mr Olsson said he expected any moves to end the restrictions on Australian exports would be handled bureaucratically.
“There is a question of saving face here, and I expect it would be like the customs announcement [regarding lobsters]. There will be an announcement at customs or departmental level that things are back to normal,” he said.
Mr Olsson said Chinese officials would be aware there was a high level of expectation that the trade strikes would end in coming months...
Most of the goods targeted by China have been affected ostensibly by quality control and environmental checks, and never formally banned. Those impediments could easily be removed".
a.f.r
https://www.copyright link/politics/federal/business-expects-china-to-lift-trade-bans-quietly-slowly-20221221-p5c7yf
3.You are correct that "winter 2023 is the one that matters most".
The EU commenced its total ban on Russian coal from 10.8.22, & its total ban on Russian seaborne oil imports from 5.12.22.
Most analysts are stating that the December 2023 winter in the EU will result in major energy shortages & high prices in the EU & UK- because this winter they will not be able to replenish their storages with Russian energy (as they did earlier, for the December 2022 winter).
(20min delay)