China Buyers Face Race to Snap Up Australia Coal, Shipper Says -...

China Buyers Face Race to Snap Up Australia Coal, Shipper Says - BNN Bloomberg

Looks as if Chinas coal ban on Australia has had minimal impact given that rising coal prices have more than made up for the shortfall. With India, Japan and South Korea increasing import volumes to alleviate the loss of Chinese market. Chinas ban removed about 40mtpa of exports however total exports were only down ~17mtpa pre ban.

Highly unlikely than China will resume importing 40mtpa anytime soon. Build-up would be gradual with physical supply and price being the major barriers to large volumes going to China.

Thermal coal volumes would differ with little information on exact volumes. My expectation is that results would rhyme with coking figures. Miners have converted the majority of their coking supply to thermal through blending (for greater sale price), this would make coking volumes limited. Substantial coking price appreciation is necessary to incentivise producers to rethink their blending. Especially for spot market producers such as WHC.