I think a heavy buyback at multiple standard deviation high...

I think a heavy buyback at multiple standard deviation high commodity prices is beyond stupid, as there's a huge risk you just buy super high and then have nothing much to show if the boom ends and the share price drops below your average buyback price. look at tech stocks where this has now happened really badly... whereas dividends ensure no return value is destroyed and shareholders get a full return on that expenditure.

I will be watching the dividend return closely and will go elsewhere if they are doing endless buybacks and weak dividends - which happens to pump up employee options values in the future (which dividends do not) but does nothing for me in the present.