I wonder why we had a similar drop in price in March 2022. You...

I wonder why we had a similar drop in price in March 2022. You will also notice a similar pattern between Oct/Noc 2021 and Oct/Nov 2022. Maybe I am just trying to find a pattern that supports a price rebound or this drop may actually be different to the others. Cannot say with certainty, but if we had this same aggressive price decline at the start of summer or winter it would paint a different picture. Is it just a seasonal run down of stockpiles before the next peak demand season in summer?

Demand is rising yearly, and if funding for investment in new mines is not favourable miners may struggle increasing supply off the back of profit alone. It is mainly China and India who can push through fast increase of supply. They have done a lot already and the question is how much further can they expand production?

I get $1.70 EPS on 850M SOI if coal price averages US$200 per ton for a full financial year. Could comfortably see $1 in dividends for the FY at those levels. WHCs increased production cost was partly due to increased handling from blending coking coal for the thermal market to realise higher per ton prices. Now that coke price is higher than thermal, they will likely reverse that decision and hopefully reduce production costs and realise a higher premium per ton to the thermal price.

I really cannot justify selling and triggering CGT event right before a record FF dividend followed by another in Aug/Sept. Never before has the coal price moved in any direction as aggressively as it has in the last two months. It is unusual for a commodity in which it is difficult to ramp production up and down at the same rate as the coal price movement. Oil and gas production control is usually as simple as opening or closing a tap.

The coal price action in the last two months screams market manipulation reminiscent of Chinas coal hoarding crackdown on speculators in Oct/Nov 2021, which they conveniently did while temperatures were mild, just before winter heating began.