1. Comsec analyst R. Feldman 16.2.23 provides his reasons (mainly fall in NEWC 6000kcal prices) for the fall in WHC SP, despite its superb 2022 profits.
(Unfortunately, 1 reason he gave was inaccurate, stating the NSW govt. now requires WHC to keep 7-10% of its thermal coal in a reservation, for local use. IIRC, the reservation on WHC was only 5%; & WHC is legally permitted to buy- at prices much below 6000kcal- low cal, much cheaper coal from non-WHC local miners, & keep this low cal only in its designated reservation ie it can still sell overseas all of it mined 6000Kcoal, at higher prices. Appreciated if others can confirm this).
Feldman states it is expected that:-
. Japan will be buying more Australian thermal coal in 2023, as it is now reducing its Russian thermal coal imports (Japan has not yet imposed full sanctions on Russian coal- probably, IMO, from April 2023).
. China will be using & buying much more thermal coal in 2023- its economy will again require much more power, following its long, severe, & widespread covid lockdowns
. "Asia" (countries not specified) currently has large stockpiles of coal- but are expected to begin replenishing these stocks in summer, in the "airconditioning" season.
https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/reporting-season/feb-23/whitehaven-coal-half-year-result-2023.html
(Go to 3 mins 5 secs- 4 mins 37 secs. for reasons in drop in WHC SP, & future prospects)
2. The huge & rapidly growing demand for airconditioning & refrigeration is producing a similar increase in the net demand for power usage in the world.
This issue receives very little coverage in the MSM (perhaps, IMO, because the more affluent countries expect & demand airconditioning & refrigeration: pangs of guilt because of the general widespread absence of it in poorer countries).
A bigger middle class is emerging in China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria etc. airconditionig & refrigeration use is expected to continue to boom.
IEA 15.5.2018 said
"The growing use of air conditioners in homes and offices around the world will be one of the top drivers of global electricity demand over the next three decades, according to new analysis by the International Energy Agency that stresses the urgent need for policy action to improve cooling efficiency.
A new IEA report – “The Future of Cooling” – shows that without new efficiency standards the world will be facing a “cold crunch” from the growth in cooling demand in coming decades.
Global energy demand from air conditioners is expected to TRIPLE (my emphasis) by 2050, requiring new electricity capacity the equivalent to the combined electricity capacity of the United States, the EU and Japan today. The global stock of air conditioners in buildings will grow to 5.6 billion by 2050, up from 1.6 billion today – which amounts to 10 new ACs sold every second for the next 30 years, according to the report.
Using air conditioners and electric fans to stay cool already accounts for about a fifth of the total electricity used in buildings around the world – or 10% of all global electricity consumption today. But as incomes and living standards improve in many developing countries, the growth in AC demand in hotter regions is set to soar. AC use is expected to be the second-largest source of global electricity demand growth after the industry sector, and the strongest driver for buildings by 2050.
Supplying power to these ACs comes with large costs and environmental implications. One crucial factor is that the efficiency of these new ACs can vary widely. For example, ACs sold in Japan and the European Union are typically 25% more efficient than those sold in the United States and China. Efficiency improvements could cut the energy growth from AC demand in half through mandatory energy performance standards.
“Growing electricity demand for air conditioning is one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA. “With rising incomes, air conditioner ownership will skyrocket, especially in the emerging world. While this will bring extra comfort and improve daily lives, it is essential that efficiency performance for ACs be prioritized".
https://www.iea.org/news/air-conditioning-use-emerges-as-one-of-the-key-drivers-of-global-electricity-demand-growth
For the forseeable future, thermal coal power will be essential to meet this massive tripling (2020-2050) of demand for power for airconditioners.
This bodes well for WHC.
(20min delay)