Agreed on most/all of your views.
Major factor we tend to ignore when guesstimating future coal price (in my opinion big time important) are weather related issues affecting mining and consumption.
in billion plus countries as well as major industrial coal consumers extended rainy season can halve production ....... above average hot summer or cold winter deplete stockpiles ........... At present I have a feeling(?) majors like China and India are digging like there is no tomorrow and importing to fill up depleted stocks ..........
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