It is mostly about gas prices. Thermal coal and natural gas...

It is mostly about gas prices. Thermal coal and natural gas prices are highly correlated. Gas has sold off a lot recently and coal prices are following that, just like what happened in reverse last year (high gas prices contributed to coal prices surging).

The European gas market at the moment is incredibly weak, surprisingly so when you consider that there is no Russian supply. The next test is the Europeans restocking for next winter. However storage was not depleted much compared to usual years because the weather was much warmer than usual. While these things are difficult to predict, if anything it looks like a period of weakness is ahead rather than another surge.

That said coking coal is remaining quite elevated and hasn’t fallen like thermal coal. Coking coal is a different market to a degree (because coking coal isn’t used to generate power).

A few years ago 20% of WHC’s production was being sold as coking coal. When thermal prices were higher than coking coal they stopped doing that because they were blending it and selling it as thermal to realise higher prices. That will presumably stop happening. That will make a big difference to earnings.