1. Yes, scientists appear top agree that an el nino will lead to...

1. Yes, scientists appear top agree that an el nino will lead to less freezing winters in Northern China & Japan, with less snow etc. This will reduce the demand for heating.
If their winters are c. 1 (?) degree celsius warmer, cf average winters, does this reduce the amount of heating used significantly, & proportionately?
Bleak, very cold conditions, in nthn. Asia will still cause much heating demand- & many/most people will still have their heaters on high.

Conversely, net fossil fuel demand might remain stable, or even increase in these nthn. Asian areas, during an el nino winter, because it is very likely there will be:-

. more travel locally, in a less cold winter. People are more willing to drive etc. outside, if conditions are not too unpleasant- having less snow, ice-effected & foggy roads & airports. This will create more demand for power, generally.

. fewer factory & workplace etc. closures, due to power blackouts- so "more" power being used.
Ditto less snow, ice, & fog etc. on the roads, may cause workplaces to have normal staffing level -this be less prone to closure/other disruptions, so "more power" would be used.



2. Ross Greenwood, a respected & long-serving, economics' commentator said 30.5.23 that the federal ALP policy of an 80% cut in CO2 emissions by 2030 would threaten manufacturers' economic viability; & is very unlikely to be achieved.

"Sky News Business Editor Ross Greenwood says the federal government’s 2030 zero emissions policy is “not going to make it” and they will have to pay to keep coal fire power stations open longer".

https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/peta-credlin/federal-governments-2030-energy-policy-could-threaten-manufacturers/video/08ddd58c641ee976d3f84e4100fe72e4


Greenwood appears to support the views of his guest (interviewed 4.5.23) Paul Broad (ie ex CEO of the Snowy Hydro- electricity Mark 2 project. $5.9b, big cost overruns,& big delays to at least 2026, from original 2024 completion date) who also concurs it is virtually impossible that there will be an 80% cut in CO2 emissions by 2030.

Broad states there will be, almost certainly, insufficient electricity towers, transmission lines, other infrastructure etc. available from 2030- solar, wind, & hydro renewable energy can't replace the lost coal-fired power.

"Former Snowy Hydro CEO Paul Broad says the Labor government is “dreaming” if they think Australia will reach an 80 per cent share of renewable energy by 2030.

“Closing Liddell was bad enough, they can’t close Eraring and they can’t close Vales Point,” Mr Broad told Sky News Business Editor Ross Greenwood.

“They need to stay here much longer.”

https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/ross-greenwood/labors-dreaming-if-they-think-they-can-hit-renewable-targets-former-snowy-hydro-ceo/video/cbc86f6893167342a1ac3519d642938f