Target $18.72, page-6104

ChinaBriefing.com 19.5.23 G. Interese said


"Australian exports reached arecord highin March of this year, signaling the significant improvement in bilateral relations and underscoring the economic importance of the Australia-China partnership. According to recent data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, exports to China surged to a record-breaking value of AUD 19 billion (US$12.8 billion) during the month. This represents a remarkable 28 percent increase compared to the previous month and a substantial 31 percent growth compared to the same period last year. Notably, this achievement marks the highest monthly export value since record-keeping began in 1988, emphasizing its historic significance

The surge in exports encompasses a wide range of Australian commodities, with a notable focus on the COAL and iron ore sectors. In particular, thermal coal exports to China experienced an astounding 122 percent surge in March, reaching US$238 million...

Nevertheless, the measures adopted by China on several Australian products, including barley, beef, cotton, lamb, lobsters, timber, and wine, resulted in the disruption of established trade patterns between 2020 and 2022. The restrictions on Australian COAL, for instance, significantly affected the industry, leading to a decrease in coal exports to China and necessitating the exploration of alternative markets...

Moreover, Chinese companies holdsignificant investments in crucial Australian mines, solidifying the interdependency between the two nations in this domain.

Australian commodities play a vital role in supporting China’s economic recovery efforts. Among these commodities, COAL and iron ore from Australia hold particular significance. As China embarks onextensive infrastructure investmentsto revive itseconomic growth after the pandemic, the demand for these resources has never been greater...

Moreover, China heavily relies on Australian COAL and iron ore to meet its energy and manufacturing needs. Prior to the trade restrictions, Australia was a major supplier of thermal coal to China, fulfilling over one-fifth of the country’s thermal coal imports (all emphases in black, mine)".

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/record-high-australian-exports-to-china-ignite-optimism-for-bilateral-trade/
China has greatly increased its thermal & coking coal imports from Russia- thus Australian coal export to China are well below 2020 levels, when China placed many unofficial bans on various Aust. exports, inc. coal...but China wants our coal now.
In Sthn China, where most of its heavy industry is located & specialist coal import port facilities are located, the seaborne costs are cheaper, cf the very distant, difficult & long/complicated railway imports of Russian & Mongolian coal (often of poorer quality, cf our low CO2 NEWC 6000kcal coal).

The MSM is reporting that China is probably going to implement soon major stimulus packages (inc. infrastructure etc.) to revive its current "moribund" (cf usual GDP growth rates) economy (unemployment is currently c. 21% for those in their 20's).
Almost certainly, therefore, China will use much more thermal coal (hydro power generation in the industrial heartland of the south is down, due to low water levels/heat waves/evaporation. Hopefully, much more coal imports from WHC!

Telco has the strongest tailwinds in a decade with an increasingly rational market, price rises across the majors and the criticality of telco increasingly recognised. The last major mobile operator Vodafone/TPG increased mobile prices by ~$5 per month in January 2023 and all key players are behaving economically rational. This combines with catalysts including the potential for InfraCo value release following the legal restructure.