Daily, hourly, minute correlation isn't there. It's the longer term trends that we need to look for. Also need to watch out for gas/coal switching price levels. Currently gas is slightly more expensive, so there's no driver to switch... but, if/when gas moons again, coal becomes more attractive for the Northern winter. Those sort of decisions are made by bureaucrats later in the year... the sort of people who are on a very comfortable fixed income and are not incentivised to make cost effective decisions, but rather social decisions around stability/revolution. Resultantly, we might see economically stupid decision made whereby high prices are paid in october/November so that the lights stay on during December/January. This is sorta what happened last year.
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I don't think we're going to see mooning again this year, but, I think we'll see solid profits and good sale prices. This will make our coalers cash piles larger and the share price will reflect this... potentially I see that another $1-1.5b in cash profits will make the mountain of cash that WHC is currently sitting on so large that the share price will have to go up. Just gotta hope that the board of directors don't burn holes in their pockets and do something stupid like diversity into lithium or decarbonisation...
WHC Price at posting:
$6.71 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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