1. In the short term (ie next 4- 6 weeks), I expect that WHC...

1. In the short term (ie next 4- 6 weeks), I expect that WHC shares will be higher (assuming NEWC 6000kcal prices remain at current levels).

From 1.7.23, the tax selling season is over- due to the usual strong selling that occurs for companies that are significantly off their previous highs in the FY up to 30.6.23. Many of those who bought WHC at the highs sold, so WHC losses could be be offset against capital gains in other stocks they sold, up to 30.6.23.




2.In the medium to long term (ie 1 year to 5 years+), I expect WHC will benefit from the decline in South African coal exports (SA is now the main coal exporter to Europe, following the Russian bans).
The SA coal export declines, rail logistics' failures, & continuing, more severe power blackouts are probably immutable. (Examples previously linked in this Thread).

Some experts are stating SA might possibly become an almost "Failed State", &/or a "Gangster State".
The murder of coal industry managers etc., other violence & threats, sabotage, theft, incompetency, corruption (even at ANC govt. level) is a harbinger for disasters that may develop in the SA coal industry in future years.

mining.com/bloomberg 27.6.23 said

"Coal shipments by state-owned port and rail company Transnet SOC Ltd. have dropped to an annualized rate of 46.5 million tons, Exxaro said on Tuesday. That’s down from the 50.4 million tons it carried from mines to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal for export in 2022 — already the lowest volume in three decades...

“Various challenges, including poor locomotive availability, train derailments, and instances of cable theft and vandalism continue to impact negatively on export performance,” Exxaro said in an update. Transnet and the coal industry continue to collaborate on efforts to improve rail performance.

Sales volumes are expected to decrease by 6% due to the slump in shipments and as lower coal prices make it less attractive to TRUCK (!) the commodity to alternative ports (including other nearby ports in other African companies, so bad are their freight & power problems (my emphases, & words in brackets), Exxaro said".

https://www.mining.com/web/worsening-rail-bottlenecks-pummel-south-africas-coal-exports/