It is not just the consensus now amongst most economists, apparently, that the USA is unlikely to enter a recession in late 2023- this view, since 26.7.23, is also now held by the US Federal Reserve.
As energy stocks have had a "discount premium" attached to them for several years, due to the widely-held belief (which began in the 2014 European debit crisis- Greece, Italy, France, amongst the most indebted EU nations) that a recession was possible, or probable. A serious recession, of course, usually causes gas, coal, & oil prices to fall- which negatively impacts the SP's of fossil fuel cos.
I, therefore, expect SP's of fossil fuel cos. to rise.
It is unclear to me as to what the general economic consensus is now, as to whether most of the EU is likely to enter a recession in late 2023. I suspect it will depend on whether gas, coal, & oil prices actually have a major, long term rise.
Politico V. Guida 26.7.23 said"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank is nowhere near declaring victory over inflation but offered some good news: The Fed’s staff believes the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2023.
The Fed raised interest rates for the 11th time since March 2022 to their highest level in more than two decades to kill inflation, and central bank officials are cautioning that there might be more hikes on the way. Powell told reporters that the process of taming price spikes has “a long way to go,” which could mean increases in the unemployment rate and slower wage growth.
Even so, staff economists at the central bank, who brief policymakers before interest rate decisions, no longer think an economic contraction is the most likely scenario this year. They had raised the odds of a slump after multiple banks failed in March.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/26/fed-hikes-rates-again-and-leaves-options-open-for-more-00108303“Given the resilience of the economy recently they are no longer forecasting a recession,” the Fed chief said at his press conference.
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