Australian Equity Market Facts: 1917–2019 | RDP 2019-04: A History of Australian Equities | RBA
Interestingly, major events such as WW1 and WW2 had negligible impacts on the market compared to the great depression, 1970s middle east shenanigans and GFC. It would seem that it is the fear rather than the outcome that strangles equities. I will also note that allied equities performed much better during the world wars compared to the axis side, largely because the market could see who was winning.
Oil was always the outcome driver in these situations rather than coal. Market instability can be predicted with stability based on historic instability. Australia will do fine; coal sector consumers and producers will get comfortable and forgo production in a falling price environment, but only after coal price is below a profitable margin based on extraction cost. Cola power plants continue to be built, and even more will be built at lower coal prices. It is the human condition but will take a few years to eventuate.
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