I agree 100%, war is costly. There has been rampant supply come online across India/China and even Europe off the back of high prices. Trump is a right-wing businessman, sort of like Putin, those two probably see eye to eye! This war is a lose-lose for both the west and Russia, there are no winners long term, they know this. Solution? Paint the comedian in a colour revolution, shift blame to him, replace with a Russia approved leader in Ukraine and announce a ceasefire. West can say we have stopped Russia from expanding past what they already have, and Russia can claim victory while the remainder of Ukraine stays intact! We can exaggerate Russian losses and underreport ours to make ourselves feel better and move on! Leftist moral warriors will cry and say that invisible borders must be reestablished at whatever human cost, that more fighting must be done to get back what is lost, as long as the others are doing the fighting of course, and it is far from their zones of comfort! Or, we try to pressure European allies to fight Russia, and they do, we then end up needing to send ANZAC and US forces to Europe again, since Russia only has to fight on one front, and is currently strong, there is little chance it can be defeated by current European west (some members may refuse to fight, nothing is set in stone with politics). It's no picnic! In this case, coal goes higher but at the cost of human life or if it becomes alarmingly integral to the war effort, the state will take coal mines out of private ownership, which is even worse for those hell bent on bloodlust for the sake of coal prices going higher. Or, coal will be taxed higher (as QLD did) to fund the war effort!! Greedy retail beware!!
Oh, did we mention nuclear? Thats a whole other kettle of fish. A sort of economic stimulus would be in order if peace were made with Russia. God knows the west needs it. Gas, thermal, SSCC. We need this to regain the industrial base that has slowly evaporated with left wing agenda over the last 50 years, and it needs cheap fossil fuels for it. The question is, will Trump end the sanctions on Russia? Peace will not be enough. If he gives the green light for this, Japan will fall over itself, along with South Korea for their coal. Coal price in this case goes through the floor in Newcastle. If there is peace in Ukraine, why keep sanctions in place at our own expense? What if gas starts flowing back to Germany? Now that will be a double whammy! Coal, IMO, would fall below current ASIC (for WHC at least). Might need leadership change in Germany too. UK and France = largely irrelevant.
Land gas pipelines through Ukraine following a possible peace would send clam through gas futures, further pushing price down. No doubt futures are elevated on fear of pipelines in Ukraine being targeted. Peace = cheap energy for Europe! Mind you, natural gas is already at historic lows! TTF shows a slight premium, possibly for the reasons given here. USA conveniently substituted cut Russian Nord stream flow with more expensive LNG from its expanded shale industry. Another factory which would provide downward pressure on energy if peace were made and pre invasion economic terms established. Yes sanctions tend to stay in place for a long time, but Trump is a wild card, anything can happen. This is two major world powers going toe to toe. This isn't the USA sanctioning Mali or Zimbabwe because "you no do what I say, so I bully you".
To sum it up. If Trump wins, war ends, coal crashes. If Trump loses, war goes on, possibly gets worse, coal rises and worst-case scenario, extra profits or entire mines are thieved by the state for the war effort. Investors lose either way in the short term, unless they are conscripted, then shares are the least of their worries. Speculating commodity prices is a hard game. Lot involved, but when the opportunity comes, it lingers for months. Preparedness is 80% of the game.
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