Well, you would be right if we assume that India operates to the...

Well, you would be right if we assume that India operates to the same standard as the most reckless western mining jurisdictions. There is minimal red tape, things happen fast. Women and children dig up coal by hand and walk several kms with it, that's their livelihood. To an extent, they may as well be where England was in the late 1700s during the industrial revolution. So now, imagine, what these people will do when you give them machinery. They will dig up their grandmother if there is coal beneath her!

I digress!

It is simple supply/demand and the little-known lag between them. See what is happening with cocoa prices. They were stable, people got bored, seeking further profits elsewhere (mining land ect) cocoa plantations were abandoned. Was it dying plantations? Children of cocoa farmers wanting a better and more luxurious lifestyle than their humble cocoa farming parents? were old cocoa trees replaced with new seedlings? Doubt it. Now price is high and places like PNG are stepping in with an abundance of plantations. Who could have foreseen this spike in cocoa? Same for coal. Prices went mad, people fell over themselves to get into coal mining globally. Profits are still strong. Repeated action is affirmative and we are creatures of habit. If coal mining made me money yesterday, I will do it today and tomorrow! If we were no creatures of habit and emotion but instead rational agents, supply/demand spikes and slumps would never happen. It would be economically illogical.

Point is, people will continue to mine unprofitable operations because that's what worked some time ago for them. See all the unprofitable/low resource ASX listed miners on the ASX. Change is difficult, it requires cognitive effort and many would rather die than think, and even when they think that they are thinking it is really the emotion talking. People will see the recent high prices of coal and expect more of the recent past. But it may be more of the not so recent past, say 2018/2019/2020? The $400 is now a psychological anchor point and people will go mad max mining hoping that those prices come back. Forgetting that that very endeavour will keep the prices down. Confused yet? There is complexity in simplicity and understanding is key.

In addition. Buyers of coal will have the pain of $400 prices front of mind. How do we avoid those prices again? Shore up those stockpiles and ensure we can weather the storm if it comes back. See both buyers and miners are anchored to $400, and so are most investors. High buyer stockpiles, lowering price, frantic mining. What happens when memory of the $400 pain wanes? Buyers relax, slowly draw down stockpiles, price will tank. There is likely collusion on the big front. Futures speculation drives contract pricing. Long term contracts for thermal are set periodically, why don't we ease off the buying, drawdown inventories and let the price drop leading up to the contract negotiations? But then again, I would be giving their intellect and planning more credit that it is due to assume this.