The Australian Federal Govt. is expecting world-wide steel...

The Australian Federal Govt. is expecting world-wide steel output to grow by 1.5% pa from 2024 to 2029. It also states met coal prices will trend down to 2029- but in 2024, it predicts met coal to average US $277 p/t.

At US $277 p/t, WHC (which, from April 2024, will derive c.70% of its total revenues from met coal) will be making very large profits in the near term.
And if/when Winchester South (already approved by Qld. Govt.) comes into production (2028?; & with neighbouring Daunia, significantly enhanced economies of scale), WHC profits will be given a major boost.

australianmining.com.au K. Tibben 5.4.24 said

"The Federal Government’s ‘Resources and Energy Quarterly’ (REQ) for March 2024 revealed coal to be Australia’s largest exporter in 2023 at around 170 million tonnes.

It’s a huge boon for the country, as overall global metallurgical coal demand is projected to rise from 317 million tonnes in 2023 to 331 million tonnes by 2029.

World steel output is expected to grow at 1.5 per cent every year over to 2029, providing a strong baseline for metallurgical coal use in the medium term.

The REQ found numerous Asian countries continue to progress ambitious steel plans and are likely to drive an increased pace of steel production over time.

Notably, the Chinese Government has imposed three per cent import tariffs on metallurgical coal in order to protect its domestic industry.

Though Australia is exempt from these tariffs under Free Trade Agreements, the REQ forecasts the global boom China has been drumming up may be reaching its peak as a result.

While China’s coal demand may slow, India’s imports grew by 25 per cent (my emphases) to 73 million tonnes in 2023, with growth expected to continue through to the end of the decade.

On the price side, Australian prime hard coking coal averaged $US294 a tonne (/t) in 2023, significantly lower than the 2022 average of $US360/t.

The REQ forecast prices will continue to experience volatility as a result of supply side issues like logistical pressures and weather events like Cyclone Jasper.

Prices are expected to broadly trend downwards in 2024, averaging $US277 a tonne for the year.

The volatility comes from the likelihood of a new La Niña cycle and associated disruptions (ie a possible re-emergence of La Nina natural weather phenomenon = above average heavy rain= disruption to coal mining output/supply. All my words)".

What’s next for Australian coal? - Australian Mining