I doubt that Israel will want, at least initially, to cripple Iran's oil production & refining infrastructure- but will probably destroy a small part of it. There is a Presidential election in the USA in 2024, & Pres. Biden (& most Western countries) would not want to see an huge jump in oil & gas prices. Israel wants to keep the West "onside", as much as possible.
Israel has "vowed revenge" (but provided no timelines, nor specifics) against Iran for its attack 3 days ago on Israel, with Iran sending hundreds of one-way bomber drones, & missiles (inc. a few cruise missiles) against Israel.
(Nearly all were shot down, or disabled, by Israel).
Newspaper headlines: Israel 'vows revenge' as it 'weighs up response' (bbc.com)
These continuing military actions are likely, according to many experts, to create much geopolitical & military uncertainty; &, eventually, will probably cause the price of oil & gas to rise (Brent crude has already risen c.14%, since Ukraine recently started long range drone strikes [up to 1200kms+- inside Russian territory] against Russian oil refineries etc.
Ukraine has recently stated that, by the end of this year, it will have designed & manufactured many thousands of these cheap, long range drones.
This Reuters 24.3.24 article is the best analysis I have read, re the increasing sophistication & potency of very "cheap" drone bomber technology.
How drone combat in Ukraine is changing warfare (reuters.com)
(Warning: Long Article)
Israel has more sophisticated drones, & counter drone technology/capabilities, than Iran (& Ukraine).
It is likely, IMO, that Israel will launch a brief, successsful attack against Iranian oil facilities; & that Ukraine will attempt major & ongoing drone attacks against Russian oil & gas facilities, deep inside Russia- but will Ukraine be able to succeed in this (Russia has much better defences)?
Both scenarios are likely to cause the price of oil & gas to, eventually, rise - but by how much, & for how long?
These uncertainties are bullish for thermal coal prices- & thus WHC will SP will appreciate.
I doubt that Israel will want, at least initially, to cripple...
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$7.25 |
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