@Alex.shipway ............as I said earlier "Patience is the key". There will be a lack of supply for many reasons. All the stars seem to be aligning for met coal producers and investors and of course traders.

I'm hoping to move the market tomorrow morning either way with these posts. LMAO. Thoughts @lilac ?

Most US Coal stocks in pre-market are up significantly.

30 June 2024
"Stanmore recently announced that its Millennium operation will soon be put on care and maintenance.
The recent closure of the Holt Lock on Alabama’s Black Warrior River will also reduce the rate of exports for both Peabody’s Shoal Creek mine and Warrior Met Coal’s #4 and #7 operations.
Given the coal quality at #7 is very close in spec to Australian Premium Low-Volatile coal, I strongly suspect that means the met market will be slightly tighter in terms of supply this time around."........................This is about the closure of the Holt Lock in the US.
...................This closure is the second major disruption this year to river navigation routes critical to Alabama’s coal industry. Earlier, in January, a lock failure at Demopolis, Alabama, shut down the primary river route connecting coal mines to the Port of Mobile. This disruption significantly impacted barged coal transportation from Peabody Energy’s Shoal Creek mine as well as Warrior’s #4 and #7 mines, forcing the latter to switch entirely to rail transport. The Demopolis Lock remained non-operational for approximately four months, from mid-January to mid-May. With the Holt Lock and Dam now out of service, these companies once again find themselves in the same situation. Warrior Met Coal will again switch to rail, while Peabody Energy must seek alternative transportation methods as the Tombigbee River junction will not be accessible this time around. The duration of the closure remains uncertain as the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducts a thorough evaluation of the damage. Although local news reports suggest that repairs could take several months, official confirmation from the USACE is still pending. This prolonged outage could have significant economic implications, disrupting coal supply chains and increasing transportation costs.

Accident disrupts coal deliveries to Australian port

Market:Coal, Coking coal28/06/24

An accident on the Blackwater railway system has disrupted coal exports from Australia's 102mn t/yr Gladstone port in Queensland, which may take some time to resolve.

The accident occurred on the main Blackwater rail line that connects coking and thermal coal mines in the lower and middle Bowen basin into Gladstone, including the Curragh, Jellinbah East, Blackwater and Kestrel coking coal mines, as well as the Rolleston and Minerva thermal coal mines.

A truck collided with a car at Raglan — 50km north of Gladstone — at approximately 3am Australian Eastern Standard Time (5pm GMT) on 28 June, bringing down overhead power lines and coming to a stop across the railway track.

"The accident is affecting coal services on the Blackwater system, together with freight and passenger trains which use this rail corridor," a spokesperson at Queensland Coal Network operator Aurizon toldArgus. Recovery work is under way and the repair process is "expected to take a number of days" to restore the line, according to Aurizon.

It is unclear how long repair works may take, although it is likely to be less than a week, an Australia-based source suggested. "It's still a bit early to say [what the impact will be]," another source said. "I'd guess they will try and get one line back up and running at a slower throughput rate while other lines/electrics are fixed."

The Moura rail system — which also delivers coal into Gladstone — continues to operate, delivering coal from the lower grade coking coal and pulverised coal injection (PCI) grade mines of Dawson and Baralaba.

The Gladstone RG Tanna coal terminal has a vessel queue of 12 as of 25 June, from 13 on 21 May and 23 on 23 April, although this may climb if the derailment disrupts coal deliveries for more than a few days.

Hard coking coal typically accounts for around a third of Gladstone's total exports, with lower-grade coking coal and thermal coal each accounting for a third.

Tighter supplies ahead

The accident is expected to further tighten supplies, especially with upcoming rail closures and maintenance on some of Aurizon's coal-hauling networks in July-August. The closure will involve one planned 96-hour maintenance closure on the Blackwater system and a 84-hour planned closure of the Gregory branch of the rail system.

The rail operator will also carry out bridge renewal work, with one track and a two-track bridge closed for two weeks, based on plans announced last year. "It is acknowledged that [this] will result in some capacity constraints during that period," an Aurizon spokesperson said on 7 June.

Arguslast assessed the premium hard coking coal price at $237/t fob Australia on 27 June, down from $249.50/t on 3 June. The fob Australia low-volatile PCI price was assessed at $186.85/t fob Australia on 27 June, up from $169.15/t on 3 June.

The price spread between fob Australia premium low-volatile coking coal and low-volatile PCI has tightened gradually in the last six months, from $143.35/t on 2 January to $50.15/t on 27 June.