1. I disagree. The major explosion & fire etc. at Grosvenor is crucial to the rise in WHC's SP, which, it must be noted, is strongly outperforming (in th % increase of WHC SP & Turnover, cf YAL, NHC, & SMR on 1.7 & 2.7.24. The strong, recent rise in met coal prices should benefit all met miners, inc. SMR- but see SMR's cooling SP below.
My thesis for WHC clearly outperforming SP action & Turnover nos. (ie Grosvenor crisis is the catalyst) is:-
a 1.7 & 2.7 WHC rose 6.3% & 5.66%. Turnover huge, cf last 3 months 81.49m shares & 129.2m shares (& 2.7 T/O in $, @ c. $8.35 VWAP a record?] b. " " " SMR rose 5%, then fell 1.08%. Turnover share numbers slightly above average, " " c. " " " NHC rose 4.8%, then rose only 1.44%. Turnover share numbers modestly above average " " d. " " " YAL rose 4.45%, then rose only 1.45% Turnover share numbers modestly above average " "
It is very obvious that WHC's huge turnover on 1.7 & 2.7 is being led by institutions...very bullish for its SP. Why are the institutions so enamoured with WHC, cf SMR, NHC, & YAL.
WHC is now a met coal miner, with 70% of revenues from met coal. NHC & YAL, obviously, are thermal miners. YAL- controlled by China (who also recently launched a totally unjustified trade war against Australia)-will NOT be given FIRB permission to buy Anglo's Qld, coal mines. NHC lacks funds to buy Anglo's coal mines
With an imminent & lucrative sale of 20-30% of Blackwater, WHC may have the best financial strength (together with Anglo vendor finance, ala BMA !?) to successfully bid for Anglo's 2 best coal mines. Huge profitability upside possibly looms for WHC- which, IMO, is the catalyst for the institutions' stampede for WHC shares.
2. .smsfinance.com.au 2.7.24 said
"...At the same time, world coking coal prices leapt 5% in late trading in Singapore, the main pricing hub, to more than $US262 a tonne. Initially, prices had not reacted to the news of the fire, remaining at $US238 a tonne, last Friday’s close. Prices only rose after traders realized that Anglo American had announced the mine would be closed for several months , which in turn sparked a surge in the share prices of Australian coal miners (but not all equally- see my point 1 above. My words)...
As of Tuesday morning, there is a growing feeling that the mine will need extensive repairs, if it can be accessed. When it will be safe to do so is impossible to estimate now, but it is expected to take months. This could delay Anglo’s sale as part of its restructuring plan.
... The fire at Queensland’s largest underground coal mine, near Moranbah, is now in its fourth day. Mining engineers say the damage could see the mine closed permanently (all emphases, mine) after the blaze is controlled and engineers can gain access to make an assessment, which may not happen for months....
Anglo shares fell because analysts believe the fire might reduce Anglo’s mines to four (which assists WHC having sufficient funds to buy all four- but WHC probably only wants two- my words) rather than the five it is looking to sell as part of its restructuring plan... ".
(20min delay)