1. In laymen's terms, can you please explain where this Livewire report on different types of coal etc. is incorrect, or misleading?
2. This Livewire C. Capolingua report is dated 1.7.24- but it cites Macquaries' bullish analysis on met coal, & was written c .26.6.24 ie before the Grosvenor closure (The latter, of course, adds considerably to the bullish expectations).
"COAL OUTLOOK
Macquarie
Macquarie describes its overall view on metallurgical coal (“met coal”) as “overweight”. The broker believes an even slower recovery in Australian shipments will “keep the market tight, despite Mongolian exports beating expectations”.
Macquarie has cut their 2024 met coal price target by 9% to US$274/t but left their 2025 price target unchanged at US$250/t in 2025. Macquarie notes these targets are 2% and 3% above consensus.
Longer term, met coal price targets have increased more substantially, up by +33% in 2026 and by +19% in 2027 (both to US$320/t). Macquarie notes these targets are more than 40% above consensus.
Figure 4 - Met-Coal Price Update versus consensus (US$/t FOB Australia. Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)
Macquarie has increased its 2024 thermal coal price target by 16% to US$140/t and its 2025 price target by 19% to US$131/t. 2026-27 targets are also increased by up to 20%.
Macquarie notes that while these appear to be significant upward revisions, they only align the broker with consensus in 2024-25, and put them less below consensus 2026-27.
Figure 8 - Thermal Coal Price Update versus consensus (US$/t). Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)".
(Re Morgan Stanley views on coal @pastperformer has, above 4.7, provided their summary ie the MS most recent coal analysis- also bullish)
Massive ASX mining stocks review: Coal, Gold, Lithium, Uranium - Carl Capolingua | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com)
(Just refer to the Coal section- otherwise, a long read)
1. In laymen's terms, can you please explain where this Livewire...
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