1. Typo in my post, immediately above, in the 2nd last sentence of my point 2.
It should have read, of course, "...very
advantageous to WHC that cashed-up YAL will be excluded"( from bidding for Anglo's 5 mines).
2. st..ck..head.com J. Chiat 5.7.24 said
"...And word Anglo has declared Force Majeure to customers on fourth quarter shipments from its Grosvenor mine ,reported by price agencies S&Pand Fastmarkets, could stir prices (my emphases) even further.
Singapore futures for premium hard coking coal have been all over the shop this week, rising as high as US$261/t before slipping back under US$250/t.
But even with the pullback in the front month contract, the market is settling into a significant contango, with December contracts running at US$281/t.
The 3.5Mtpa operation is one of the few (my emphasis) coking coal mines that was forecast to increase output in the years ahead and its closure is sensitive given Anglo’s plans to sell its coal assets in Queensland after the collapse of aBHP (ASX:BHP)bid for the diversified London-listed miner.
Accounting for around 1.3% of the seaborne market and much of its higher quality content, the closure could last months and fuel shortages for Indian mills reliant on spot contracts and Japan-Korea-Taiwan steel mills. You can read Fastmarkets expert Paul Lim’s take on the fallout at the link below.
READ: Bulk Buys: Anglo walking on hot coals as fire hits sale process
...But it’s not just Anglo
Grosvenor is a big player in the met coal trade, but analysts at merchant banks have already (ie pre 29.6 Grosvenor fire- my emphasis, & words) been calling met coal their preferred (my emphasis) market for commodity exposure.
Morgan Stanley made the call this week after the Grosvenor fire and other supply cuts in the United States which will serve to tighten the market, lifting its year end forecast for PHCC to US$290/t (my emphases).
Goldman Sachs thinks prices will head even higher, surging to US$300/t (my emphases) in the September quarter due to production issues from Anglo and its failed suitor BHP.
GS analysts reckon the world has already lost 8Mt of supply (my emphases) against pre-pandemic levels due to production problems caused by methane and geotechnical issues at Anglo’s Bowen Basin portfolio.
It also think waste stripping at BHP’s key BMA JV mines will see its output drip 10Mt (my emphases) this year.
Met coal is expected to be balances from 2024-2026, but Goldman sees a modest market deficit emerging in 2027 because of stagnating Aussie supply growth and rising demand from India, already BHP and Coronado’s largest external customer.
Monsters of Rock: Met coal transforms into top commodity pick as Anglo Force Majeure talk emerges - *(google " Chiat Sto...ck...head Met coal transforms" etc., to open link fully).
(20min delay)