Target $18.72, page-9827

Hi,
Your forecasts are meaningless. Too far out. Too much can happen in 3 years.
How about some basic figures from a bit more research for quarter 4 for the new coal mines (Blackwater and Daunia)
Here is my basic summary

During the 3rd quarter (Jan 24-Mar24) BMA produced the following at these mines

Blackwater 2.14Mt
Daunia 1.04Mt

Total 3.18

This was all produced at a time of when there was 135mm of rain in the area as well as 2 tropical cyclones. This of course impacted unit costs significantly.
For the June quarter the area had received 68mm of rain.
So I am expecting a significant uplift in production for the June qtr. How much I don't know.
With improved weather, improved unit costs.

Unless something like geological problems, machinery breakdowns etc 3.2Mt should be the absolute minimum production.

"Analysts at Bell Potter expects the coal producer to report 3.2 million tonnes (Mt) quarterly sales contribution from Blackwater and Daunia mines in Queensland vs WHC's 3.5-4.0 Mt forecast............." I'd love to understand how they came up with this 3.2Mt

I have no idea about the thermal coal side of things. Met coal now accounts for 70% of WHC revenue going forward so we need to look one year ahead.

FWIW, I shorted from 8.63 and closed out my position at $8.50 and last at $8.49. Follow the trend.