I think the volatility you're referring to might come from their inherent cyclical nature.
You mentioned FMG for example, that have still managed to grow earnings (see above). despite Iron ore ranging from $60USD around 2014, to lows of $35 in 2015, to highs of $200 in 2021, back to $100 currently. (Yes I know FMG have a lower grade iron ore and sell at a cheaper rate and the exchange rate has fluctuated throughout those years). Despite this, FMG has had "solid" earnings throughout this time.
WHC earnings have been all over the place. 3 years it had negative EPS and 2 years it has 2c and 3c EPS. If you were unlucky enough to pick the peak price in 2011 ($7.20) and held till now ($7.50) including dividends, you've barely kept up with inflation.
If you were lucky enough to pick the bottom in 2016 and buy in at 41c and held on till today, you're up something like 2000%+ when you include the dividends. This is why I think something like WHC is a trading stock - not short term day to day, week to week, but probably something like 6 monthly sort of holding periods. This is exactly what I have done, and both times I made relative good returns. 2023FY was about ~22% including dividends for about a 4 month hold and ~15% last year for a 3 month hold. I'm happy with that and I think those were relatively risk free traded.
LTR dont even have earnings and so whilst the share price has fluctuated, this has all been based on speculation.
Anyway, is WHC approaching a fair valuation currently? I think the returns in the next 6-12 months are very limited whilst they pay off debts. Likely to get no more than a 10c FF dividend in the upcoming report. This will probably disappoint (despite being flagged already). Looks like too much downside risk at this price. $6.50 or so would be a safer option. Especially with coking coal prices approaching $200USD.
