Hi Alejandro,
Well argued mostly correct.
As a result of our ''western centric'' "rules based" world view we fail to consider expected economic growth rates affecting energy demand of India alone. India young generally poor by our standards (under 30yo) population exceeds total population of EU and USA ! Electricity demand is and will skyrocket. As a result local mining can hardly keep up I think(?). Add few black swan events like torrential rains / flooding disabling major Asian coal mining provinces ..... we are over 400 in a second.
My take is all big exporters seriously even dramatically for a while above today over next four years. As you argue well it will not be smooth plain sailing we all wish to see.
good luck to all
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