One assumption of the Stuart Roberts report is that oxycodone reaches commercialization a year ahead of oxymorphone.
I'm not sure why he thinks this, but I think it is more likely that a single deal for both products will be struck in 2014. if not a single deal, then I am not sure why oxymorphone would not be at the head of the class.
if one has to come ahead of the other, I really don't care who gets asked to the dance first. I just think that there are compelling advantages to a potential partner being able to coordinate marketing and branding of a topical and a systemic opiate patch.
So, how about a deal in 2014 for BOTH, with an upfront of $150 to $200 million and downstream royalties of 12-14% As has been pointed out, all this translates in to annual royalty income of somewhere between $744 million and $1.134 billion.
Does anyone have a calculator that can figure what this does to the share price at a PE ration of, say, 15? My figures say somewhere between $10 and $15 based solely on the opiate portfolio.
Please somebody, pinch me.
POH Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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