Target 30c, page-136

Apologies for the length

I said to a friend yesterday, at the current price level it seems as though there is speculation built into the price and that it has slightly overshot its true value given current information.

With that said, when making that sort of statement, we're talking about a very short time horizon.

The question you have to ask before buying, is 'what is my investment thesis based on my time horizon?'

If you are a long-term investor, then you're analysis should be formed using a long-term view, such as Shimmers analysis. In this context, EUC is a fundamental buy, no question about it in my mind.

As a long-term value investor, you are predicting long-term trends using current information to bet on information not yet reflected in the current stock price. This sort of analysis lends itself well to trends such as EV, management capabilities etc, where you have proxies for information in advance of hard-facts.

Many people that have come to this forum are mixing up their time horizons. They comment on a short-term price fluctuation even though they are long-term investors.

If you place a value of >$1 on a stock as Shimmer has, then a fluctuation of 5c is a non-event.

Imagine that we are one year from now, at $1 and you look back at a graph of stock price fluctuations over the last year. Will you pick out the 10th of October and say that this was a day that EUC fundamentally changed?

My guess is, that you wouldn't even notice a fluctuation existed because you're looking at the long-run trends present in the data. It will be a blip on an upwards trajectory.

My point: Don't sweat it guys, if you believed yesterday that EUC was a buy, it's still a buy today and tomorrow and the day after, irrespective of the short-term price fluctuations, UNLESS we get some fundamental long-term value altering news.

The investment lesson from this?

When you can buy a stock for less than your fundamental valuation of the stock, buy every time it dips if it's a volatile stock (higher prob. of a dip), or just buy if you don't think it's going to dip.

Hope this chills some people out.

Tbulm