target 32.50

Taking a position in a stock like NCM is always an interesting ride. Just thinking out loud before I start going nuts building a larger position

At the present time someone is belting her, increasing short positions to large levels, weakling support when the market is rallying and dampening sentiment. Volumes are down providing short traders opportunities to smash.

Personally I see this time as an opportunity to invest more and think a short term target of $32.50 is realistic.

sometime soon someone big will enter and flush out all the short side, they have done it time and time again since OCT08 with plenty of trading spikes to make your gains,,

FACTS
Following are the GOLD prices in AUD achieved by NCM over the last 6 QTR and the achieved copper prices. All of these are published and form part of their reports.

Gold Mar QTR 08 1035/oz and 3.93 Copper/ (SP 33.37)
GOLD June QTR 08 961/oz and 4.06 Copper (SP 29.30)
GOLD SEPT QTR 08 975/oz and 3.93 Copper (SP 27.63)
GOLD DEC QTR 08 1198/oz and 2.71 Copper (SP 33.89)
Gold March QTR 09 1352/oz and 2.29 Copper (SP 32.73)
Gold June QTR 2009 1223/oz and 2.66 Copper (SP 30.51)

TODAYS
POG AUD contract Price 950.70/.8334 = 1140 (sp 29.54)
Copper Price 282.20/.8334 = 3.38 (sp 29.54)

Looking back at market pricing historically target of 32.50 is reasonable given the current prices on market being achieved for both Gold and Copper.

I am sure others are also recognising the value of NCM at current SP levels because of its large Gold and Tungsten finds in the last QTR and expected upgrade in production foreshadowed a number of times in recent months.

Short positions have been very heavy and as the DJIA did not tank as last night in fact it rebounded 120point some shorts will be sweating this morning so I'm looking for natural support.

GOLD PRICE inflation OUTLOOK
Gold price will rise significantly over the next 3-6months IMO, theory based on the following


quantitative easing, credit support all involve a lot of printing which is expected to continue, this will support gold price as currencies will be devalued, especially USD.

Increasing money supply and keeping interest rates artificially low will result in inflation.

China's portfolio requires more diversification as it % of US treasuries is very high and its % of gold and other hard assets including currencies is relatively low, last major buyer of gold (according to what i have heard anyway) was China, they bought 400plus tons, roughly the same amount as the EU sold

Increased liquidity of paper and guarantees is being redeployed into hard assets like gold regardless of demand.

More stimuli to come, this will put further pressure on the USD.

Accruing Compound interest on telephone book number type US deficits will very quickly turn into telephone book liabilities putting even more pressure on the USD, supporting , even driving Gold price further

No real major discoveries from the Majors.......NCM has found gold and tungsten but production is a long way off, limited supply to support price going forward. (

A lot of the stimulus is yet to hit the system,, a lot of money allocated by governments but not all spent as yet..and if the market does get smashed by a pullback, I would expect governments to get even more aggressive on handouts to stimulate spending, free money should push all prices..

Inflation is already here from where I sit, food, insurance, property, fuel, commodities, clothing, equity prices, interest rates.

USA is going to have horrible inflation numbers in a few months time, they are going to be terrible and they cannot (as far as I can see) avoid it.....consider the six month figures, OIL and Copper and other commodities have doubled,,,this will flow through to purchasing manager prices/ input costs and consumer prices,,,has too oil 33 to 70,,copper 150 to 272 per pound etc etc etc In a low interest rate environment, even seasonally adjusted this is going to drive the gold price imo

As governments flirt with carbon trading, the capital cost to get new mines to production will probably rise, this additional capital cost will dampen exploration, limit future supply and crank price....

Now what are my little research team up to now?

GL all