As a holder of coal stocks including WHC i must say i am concerned about the lack of market response in terms of market cap for Australia coal stocks to the recent rising coal price. yesterday and first thing this morning i expected a much bigger jump and have concluded that I/we may be too bullish on the value of these coal assets. why?
while glencore is a canny coal player, the reason they were able to cheaply buy out their Columbia partners in the recent deal is probably because there is limited interest in investors for coal assets. Rio, BHP, Anglo getting out of thermal coal and Glencore also capping their longer term ambitions i think is a major factor to consider when applying a value on the cash flow from coal companies. just like commodity prices are supply and demand driven does not the long term value of the commodity producing companies depend also on the value investors put on their underlying assets?
I am very disappointed in the price of that glencore deal as it is likely be be a headwind for valuation of all thermal coal assets going forward given the current price environment should not make these assets bargain buys.
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As a holder of coal stocks including WHC i must say i am...
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