It's not a matter of if, but when, we lose the large thermal plants. They are unprofitable, will become less profitable as their maintenance becomes more expensive, and the government is not going to step in to build their own.
Who in their right mind would build a large thermal plant given the technology pace of change and energy price forecasts? SA has run as an island with no coal plants (gas was operating), it's not fantasy.
AU is acknowledged as a world leader in DER - I know an ex-energy trader (worked for multinational in SG) in AU who has moved in to DERs for this reason.
But short term, coal exporters will do well. Don't bet on coal being strong in 15 years though.
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