Ref: Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks.Stumbled...

Ref: Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks.

Stumbled across this paper written back in 2013 which is still topical given their predictions will be tested in the next few years.

Abstract
The energy supply of China is completely dominated by coal, making future coal production
projections for China important. Recent forecasts suggests that Chinese coal production might reach
a peak in 2010-2039 with widely different maximum production levels. Estimated ultimately
recoverable resources (URR) significantly influence the projections. However, widely different
URR-values were used and due to poor understanding of the Chinese coal classification. To
mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and analysis of historical
evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is then derived,
indicating that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based
on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production
could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other
potential constraints, it can be concluded peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This
event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies.

One of the graphs in the document indicating peak production of domestic coal as soon as 2024.



RTWT...