Goldman Sachs expects a 7% lag while Shaw and Partners Resource Analyst expects a 13% lag for June quarter. For reference we had a 15% lag for the March quarter.
If the NEWC index averages US$95/t for the June quarter, with a 7% discount WHC achieved coal price would be US$88.35/t; if we go with a 13% lag WHC achieved coal price would be US$82.65/t.
Of course this is a less optimistic scenario on what NEWC average price will be, it could easily be US$100 or higher depending on this month and early July. The lag affect might be much smaller than either brokers expect, numerous factors.
Though one thing is certain the future is bright for coal prices and WHC.
Target $4.61, page-639
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