People dying from heat in NA, and the prospect of above average temperatures for summer seems to provide a strong demand story for thermal coal. what will the supply side response be. seems overnight the price continues to increase so that says to me there is a tight market. Have china painted themselves into a corner on their Australian coal exclusion decision??? surely they will not back flip and change 1000's of years of traditional save the face culture right?? better to pay a premium for coal from elsewhere or come up with another explanation why the atmosphere needs to be polluted by putting in a higher mix of Indonesian high ash low calorific coal?? if the net outcome is that:
1. WHC do not export to china (historically that is the case except for some metallurgical product)
2. the market dynamics continue to push up the price
3. they sort narrabri operations
4. limited global investment in new thermal coal production expansion due to "green tape" and lack of financing options
5. the coal plants that survive longer term are high efficiency ones needing premium thermal coal
then...i see strong cash flow for WHC for several years
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