"Have you noticed Renewables are going gangbusters and make you...

"Have you noticed Renewables are going gangbusters and make you feel really good about being part of the Future?"

@GT350,

I'm a big fan of renewable energy and I'm very happy that renewable energy is being increasingly adopted, especially in the wealthy countries.

Just like I'm happy about coal being used as a reliable source of energy for economic development in underdeveloped and developing countries, to improve the living standards of the billions of people living in those less wealthy countries.

And I'm also a fan of making money out of economic rationalism predicated on supply and demand fundamentals.

To that end, according to people a lot smarter than I am - namely the energy analysts and scientists at one of the world's pre-eminent global energy consultancies, the International Energy Agency (who, it must be said doesn't have much of a favourable disposition towards coal as an energy source) - demand for thermal coal in SE Asia (the market serviced by the Australian coal industry) coal fired power generation will increase by more than 80% between now and 2040:


Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2020


If demand for an economic good rises (i.e., the demand curve shifts to the right), while supply is constrained (supply curve is unchanged), then the fundamental tenets of economics say that the price of the economic good will be higher, rather than lower.





Some months ago, I thought it might take a year or two for this economic tenet to manifest itself, but it is happening a lot sooner than I had expected, with coal prices currently at near-record highs:



Objectively, that price graphic tells a starkly different story to your narrative about an economic good which is ....er... "coming to an end" any time soon.

(Next thing you'll be telling me that oil is also coming to an end soon.)

.