Target $9.36, page-1219

Some comments:
1. It will be unusual if coal is not back to normal pricing very soon - look at any historical thermal coal price chart - I put one below - even if the west is constrained from producing more coal - there are a lot of places that will pump out lower quality stuff in huge quantities who will not give a shit about pollution or Paris.

Ahhh yes, use history to predict the future. That's worked well thus far. Europe, Japan and Korea are determined to meet their emissions targets. They are doubling down on renewables. They won't be buying Coal from India and China, its polluting further where they are already reluctant to do so.

2. This pro cyclical buyback will have paid out a significant proportion of the current huge cashflows to sellers at these high prices - we don't know what the total will be. Are management remunerated based on TSR?Why does that matter? Management are incentivsed to keep the business going as long as possible and keep pulling out high wages. Doing buybacks a dividends does not ensure their longevity in the business. seems pretty aligned to me.

3. There will be some seemingly great franked dividends short term that will probably not go on very long. Marketscreener consensus is predicting $1.74 in divs from 2022 to 2024, but these are obviously based on cashflow projections that may not occur, and buybacks might even be higher than expected -we don't know. Analysts tend to blow with the wind. HODLers will risk only having only crumbs after a dollar or two in divs or whatever.

There will be no franked dividends, again you have done very little research on the company. I'd say your estimates are wrong, and based on reversion to the mean assumptions, which for the last 6 months have been wrong. And remain wrong. The best commodity price analyst will tell you, they have no ability to predict future prices. Stranded asset risk is real, but if the company pays everyone out their full capital invest within 18 months, who cares? Free carry for an asset which could be stranded in 10 years. Im comfortable with that.

4. However you will probably still get tea and biscuits at the AGM - if you are starving and can get there ;-)
5. You might sell at the lows just before the next coal boom in a decades time or whenever, when the tax loss looks appealing. Worse you might buy at the highs and sell at lows.
6. Remember that the cure for high prices is . . . high prices!Oh yes, the old adage, I do remember that one. You know why it's always been true? Because capital investment has never been constrained to the levels we currently see by ideology and politics. There is no CapX coming from the developed world, climate targets are still front of mind so nobody is funding a new gas pipeline that has a 25 year payback period. Nobody is funding exploration for new gas and Oil because governments won't provide policy support to ensure longevity for these assets. It will take years to catch up. That's why, this time it is indeed different.

Winter is coming.