Hi
@mondyinvest, glad to have you on the forum, Its all one big learning experience. Im all in on WHC so I have no other financial statements to read, lol. Your numbers are only missing a few expenses, I will clarify below. I copied and pasted your calculation and highlighted my additions and changes in yellow.
1 - Rail, port and marketing (RPM) expenses have been a relatively consistent expense over the last two years at ~$320M per year, I got a bit slack and came up with 16% combined royalty and RPM expenses in relation to revenue, but it is better to do them separately.
2 - Looking at your method of calculation now has me thinking that I may have calculated royalties
after cost of coal was deducted, which is wrong, they calculate royalties off the total revenue.
3 - Admin/other expenses of ~$50M and finance expenses for lease agreements another ~$50M.
4 - Unlike royalty deductions, income tax is deducted after capex is deducted from EBITDA.
NEWC: US$400ROE (0.70): A$571Less 8%royalty: A$525Lesscash cost: (A$96)Equalsmargin/t: A$429Timesvolume (14.1mT)Less Rail, Port and Marketing: $320M
Less Admin and other expenses: $50M
Less finance expenses: $50MEquals EBITDA A$5.63BLess capex A$360M
Less tax 30%Equals A$3.68BMy final number here is higher by $340M from my original calculation, which is likely due to points 1 and 2 stated earlier. We are both in the ballpark now, we are making alot of money, stay tuned for the quarterlies, they will paint the picture much better than either of our colorful predictions lol.
@ssayrus no, to keep it simple I used 950M shares on issue, which is the current amount outstanding as of this month. Of course, results will get better as they pay down shares. In terms of the return, any shares bought back count as a return to shareholders based on their monetary value divided by shares outstanding and then calculated as a percentage of the financial year EPS in which they were bought back.
@pastperformer your claim is unfounded.
EPS was 24 cents for report released in August 2010, SP in the same month was over $5 giving a PE of about 21. Dividend for the entire year was 5.6 cents
EPS was 2 cents (due to some significant tax items that were deducted) for report released in August 2011, SP in the same month reached a peak of $5.30 giving a PE of 265. All with a meager 7.4 cent dividend for the entire year.
Need I say more, 2018 results I have already mentioned in an earlier post
63407954. All these years were full of heavy ESG sentiment, with little regard to the coal sector.
Currently we are at an EPS of $2 with our dividend for FY21-22 at 48 cents while having just passed the previous SP highs of 2011/2018. These results are only set to improve in FY22-23.
Feel free to cash out at a PE of 5-6, you will still make money, but I see sentiment shifting. People and government are starting to realize how important coal is. Investment into coal is on the rise which means more people buying coal stocks. PE of 15 is far from unrealistic and if we reach that on FY22-23 EPS, we are looking at a SP of $45-$60.
(20min delay)