WHC 2.90% $8.71 whitehaven coal limited

Indias coal stocks are high between all of its power plants,...

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    Indias coal stocks are high between all of its power plants, however Peak and Deficit MW are both increasing suggesting there is not enough grid power to meet demand.There are currently 39 coal power plants under construction in India, 4.5GW of power was added in 2021-2022 with another 7 GW to be added in 2022-2023. To calculate the amount of coal these new plants will require I will do a simple calculation.

    1 MW per hour with blended coal requires about 0.7 tons per hour (mid point for caloric content of coal).
    0.7 x 24 = 16.8 tons per day for 1 MW
    16.8 x 365 = 6,132 tons per year for 1 MW
    6,132 x 7 = 43,000 tons per year for 7 MW
    43,000 x 1000 to achieve GW equivalent = 43 Million tons of coal required for India in the next 12-24 months to feed 7 GW of newly built coal fired power plants. This is a lot of coal demand coming onto market in the near term, with not enough supply projects to meet this demand, CIL which accounts for 80% of indias coal output has only this month recieved approval for an additional 10 projects with a combined 9 Million tons of extra coal output.

    With 5 Million tons to be added in the Parsa mine, It still does not meet the shortfall.

    If the best case scenario was to have enough new coal projects to meet demand from newly built power plants, it would still take longer than 12 months (expected completion date of new 7 GW supply) to bring this coal onto market. Even in India, where regulations are relaxed, it takes several years to bring a mine to production.The rest of the demand will have to come from the seaborne market or from Russia through the construction of new railways, with logistics within the country also likely to be strained.

    With about 60% of Indians living in poverty, electrification and industrialization still remains the best method to lift the standard of living.Increased input costs of coal production are also destined to raise the price of coal in the coming years and permanently raise the floor of coal prices much the same way oil prices spiked in the 1970s due to the Yom Kipurr war. This is what the QLD government failed to understand with its tax hike on coal miners. Their policy came with an assumption that these were abnormally high prices destined to fade away back to their old range of $50-$120. If they had acknowledged that these coal prices are here to stay they would have had a clearer picture of the damage that their policy will have on the state.

    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/coal/power-plants-report-record-high-coal-stocks-in-august/93939433

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4645/4645584-e5f82d5d7e164f77bde766400e03c5f8.jpg
 
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