its definitely good to have differing views rather than a big...

its definitely good to have differing views rather than a big circle jerk, but i am curious as to what your model involves

is your model essentially accounting for $80USD coal starting from 6 months from now? Or have you used the forward curve (not great i know, but its a starting point)

In your model what happens if $375coal remains for 1 year (for example, a lot of NHC coal is on that price due to contracts with japanese, and 5% of WHC is on that price).

i dont think anyone expected $400usd coal to remain forever. but if it remains like this even for 1 year you get most of your money back... For reference last time the SP was anywhere near this high was in 2011, and operating cashflow was 80m for the year. Now it is over 1.5bn a qtr.

with most stocks you have to have a view of what happens over 5 - 10 years given they trade at 10 - 30x earnings. Noone really knows what googles revenue will be in 10 years, or facebook, or amazon. With WHC and NHC you have to just monitor for 1 year and you will already be laughing...


coal is also not a "hot" stock.. tell anyone of ur friends or colleagues you are investing in coal.. they will laugh at you or avoid you... being hated is good from a valuation point of view