If high prices will only last a year or two as you say, why are the forwards above US$300/t out to the end of 2027? What is going to change structurally to bring them down? Gas prices, which are at least double coal prices? No, because the market isn't going to welcome Russian supply any time soon even if the war ended tomorrow, which it won't. Extra coal supply? No, where from? I've worked in this space for 20 years and this time it is different, governments in Europe are backstopping (ie. funding) utilities to make sure the lights stay on - and we're only 2 weeks into the northern autumn. Where will we be in mid-winter? These high prices are a result of over a decade of strangulation on the supply side, and that isn't being reversed any time soon - where are the new mines? The same theme is playing out in oil and gas, and Mr Buffett has just gone very long in that sector.
Everyone hates coal until the lights go out. Now everyone is desperate to get hold of coal, whatever the cost. It is the most reliable, low-cost option for baseload power generation globally.
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