1. The good news. NHC rose today by 33c- 8.9% increase. See link below, &HC Commentary. I assume their 19c dividend (ex date 24.3.25), & their reduction in coal production costs were the main driver of their big SP rise. YAL dropped 10c, to $5.27, down 1.26% today. I also assume their stock holders also moved across to NHC, to obtain the dividend.
This SP action, in IMO, portends well for WHC, since our SP ROSE today by 2.82%, 18 c higher, to $5.84 (&, encouragingly, close to today's Highest Price)- showing strength in our SP, cf YAL
If (& a big IF ), thermal coal prices don't fall much below US100, & met prices don't fall much below US $170%, then we have probably reached a bottom in WHC SP.
On 14.3.25, Macquarie downgraded both WHC (new TP $6.50- old Feb.25 TP was c.$8) & NHC to "Neutral". (Thank s@SpaceMinerPost #:78267412)
2.The bad news. The major fall in thermal prices (from US 400+) & met coal (from US 300+) make it almost impossible for WHC to reach $18 + (Old Thread). PE expectations for coal stocks will never replicate the PE of non-fossi fuel/non-tech ASX stocks- because many "experts" predict (clearly incorrect, IMO- they will be important for many decades!) fossil fuel use will collapse within c.10 years..."stranded assets", they say.
A SP Target for WHC is realistic, however, of $9.36 is in a few years, assuming the coal price cycle will rebound moderately in a few years. Or perhaps sooner , if themal coal use is "Upgraded" & promoted...ala Donald Trump's comments yesterday, celebrating the return of "beautiful, clean coal"! Trump Vows to Authorize Coal-Fired Power to Counter China | Financial Post
Much
WHC Price at posting:
$5.84 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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