Rupert,
Just to rebut just about every point you made there:
1. There is no new supply of any magnitude coming on line from Africa in 2007. The only two new major zinc projects due to come on line in 2007 (outside of China) were Herald Resources Dairi project (120ktpa) and Apex Silver’s San Christobel Project (180ktpa). Both have been delayed until 2008.
2. Zinifex is not going gangbusters on the production front, in fact, far from it. Lower grades and maintenance shutdowns saw ZFX have its slowest production half since it was born out of Pasminco.
3. LME stockpiles are where excess zinc material goes. Of course there will be users doing SOME stockpiling, but LME inventories are still the best indicator of the tightness of the market.
4. It takes a long time to develop a zinc mine – probably over 5 years from scoping study for any decent sized operation.
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