Per my back of envelope calculations, I think the value for...

Per my back of envelope calculations, I think the value for Siana alone stands somewhere between 24cents and 48cents (depending on your assumptions, of which I have made many in the attached table).

These include:
1/. average gold price between US$1,450 - US$1,000 per oz over next 10 years;
2/. average silver price between US$34 - US$25 per oz over next 10 years;
3/. operational cost per oz increases 5% year-on-year
4/. no debt or interest expense
5/. no other significant capital expense
6/. SG&A expenses at 10% of revenue
7/. tax at 30% of profit
8/. PE ratio between 13 (average gold sector) and 26 (Newcrest)
9/. EPS over 10 years = 1.9cps average
10/. No. shares remains at 1.284billion

Naturally, I would expect many differences between my assumptions and reality. However, my aim is simply to validate whether RED is fairly valued at current levels or not. I believe the answer is it is not - so I've got my bid in and will hope for a September quarter pour and re-rating.
Good luck to all.

	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Gold	45,700	72,200	90,300	127,100	85,600	85,600	85,600	85,600	85,600	85,600	848,900
Cost/oz (US$)	400	420	441	463	486	511	536	563	591	621	652
Silver	245,800	191,900	120,000	134,600	125,050	125,050	125,050	125,050	125,050	125,050	1,442,600
Cost/oz (US$)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
[incl. In Gold cost]
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	TOTAL
GOLD Oz	11,425	52,325	76,725	99,500	116,725	85,600	85,600	85,600	85,600	85,600	64,200	848,900
SILVER Oz	61,450	232,325	173,925	123,650	132,213	125,050	125,050	125,050	125,050	125,050	93,788	1,442,600
AVE. GOLD PRICE	1,450	1,400	1,350	1,250	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000
AVE. SILVER PRICE	34	32	30	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	TOTAL
Revenues	18,655,550	80,689,400	108,796,500	127,466,250	120,030,313	88,726,250	88,726,250	88,726,250	88,726,250	88,726,250	66,544,688	965,813,950
Operating Costs	4,570,000	21,976,500	33,835,725	46,073,475	56,751,987	43,699,881	45,884,875	48,179,118	50,588,074	53,117,478	41,830,014	446,507,127
Operating Profit	14,085,550	58,712,900	74,960,775	81,392,775	63,278,326	45,026,369	42,841,375	40,547,132	38,138,176	35,608,772	24,714,673	519,306,823
SG&A Costs (10%)	1,865,555	8,068,940	10,879,650	12,746,625	12,003,031	8,872,625	8,872,625	8,872,625	8,872,625	8,872,625	6,654,469	96,581,395
Depreciation exp	2,070,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	8,280,000	6,210,000	82,800,000
EBIT	10,149,995	42,363,960	55,801,125	60,366,150	42,995,294	27,873,744	25,688,750	23,394,507	20,985,551	18,456,147	11,850,205	339,925,428
Interest	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tax @ 30%	3,044,999	12,709,188	16,740,338	18,109,845	12,898,588	8,362,123	7,706,625	7,018,352	6,295,665	5,536,844	3,555,061	101,977,628
Net Profit	7,104,997	29,654,772	39,060,788	42,256,305	30,096,706	19,511,621	17,982,125	16,376,155	14,689,885	12,919,303	8,295,143	237,947,799
Cash on hand	$16m
(assumes $82.8m capital cost to first pour)
[per Fidelity Investment Mgmt PRZ June 14]
No.shares
1,283,674,237
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Average
EPS (cents per share)	0.553	2.310	3.043	3.292	2.345	1.520	1.401	1.276	1.144	1.006	0.646	1.854
PE Ratio	Price
NCM = 26	48
KCN = 23	43
Gold Sector = 13	24