Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

OGX

Click for more information

0.00%

0.3¢ orinoco gold limited

Target SP, page-2

First 2 Last

jimone

1,802 Posts.

583

03/03/18

15:06

Post #: 31502392

Originally posted by rarebird1971 ↑

Hi Folks
Again apologies for being so quiet on the OGX front. I have been flat out with work and will again be quiet in the coming week due to extra large work commitments. Can I say I believe the time taken to release results is a huge positive as the larger the reported throughput the more reliable the results are.

I want to declare I have a large holding in this stock and am a firm believer in the more than likely substantial re rate that the stock will soon undertake. There has been a few questions on potential stock price likely pending any favorable announcement from HM3 so I thought I would share my conservative workings with others to help them align their emotions with reality when the announcement is made. Can I preface the table below by saying I like to be conservative in my workings and others could easily have higher targets by increasing throughput especially given the order placed for a second HM and also the potential in a second shift running tailings and the forgotten silver. There is also upside should the exchange rate move favorably and the gold price rises.

Based on this table any results above 18 gms / tonne should see Share price rise. I feel that 14 gms / tonne should hold prices especially given the ability to increase output via extra shifts and the added mill.

As mentioned in a previous post the big gains come should we hit the ASX 200 where P/E ratios can be more like 16 which could potentially double SP without any extra earnings.

GLTAH in what is sure to be an exciting week.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14

1 Orinoco sp V's gold recovery rates ***Assumes a 6 hr run of high grade ore at 25 tph x 7days per week

2 Also assumes gold price of US $1325 tonne & exchange rate $1.29 Au to $1 US ie AU $1709 oz

3 I have also assumed a conservative profit of $600 AU per oz with a MC of 8x

4 I have also assume that all options will be converted therefore all equations are on a fully diluted basis

5

6 Gold Recovery rate grams / tonne

7 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36

8 Share Price 0.08496869 0.09913 0.113292 0.12745303 0.141614 0.155776 0.169937 0.184099 0.19826 0.212422 0.226583 0.240745 0.254906

9

10

11

12 Shares on issue 1190000000

13 Profit per tonne AU$ 600

14 Gold price 1709

15 output per week 1050

Expand

I think you are correct with your calculations based on conservative numbers. The one thing that is hard to quantify is what the market ( SP ) will be when you take into account future expectations. This will greatly skew the numbers, we will get a far greater bump if the grade is 25 gt then the raw numbers would suggest, than if the grade is 12 gt that would be much closer to raw numbers. I think the reason for this is the persevered profitability at the different grades and how much money the company will have on hand to ramp up production and exploration. The higher the grade, the safer the investment. IMHO..

OGX Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

0 Great analysis

There are more pages in this discussion • 124 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add OGX (ASX) to my watchlist

SPONSORED BY