Scooter5, forget about the foundamentals, the big profits and...

Scooter5, forget about the foundamentals, the big profits and even the charts in turbulent times. Metal prices are going dropping across the board. When the US$ strengthens more they'll drop even further.

Markets look 6 months ahead. Especially resource stocks.

I tend to agree with Mongobolo that BHP heads south. If not $24, should be $25-$26.

The BIG and smart guys pushed the price to $50 with roumors that chinese are buying BHP, offloaded to idiots and since then it's being going downhills.

Go back to 2000 and check resource stocks and the recession till 2003. Similar pattern. BHP run hard in Jan 2000 and then dropped sharply. I experienced it 1st hand back then as I got out of a large lot of BHP call warrants just before it peaked. And then I got burned in some other good quality resource stocks, like MIM, WMC and NBH.

When BHP and the rest of resources drop a lot, expect a possible recession in 6-8 months.

Here in Australia we might be lucky and avoid it if China keeps buying Australian resources. But that will not translate in BHP sp gains. Do not expect the BHP sp to back to $40 unless all the fears about a recession have eased.

The smart money now is moving to banks. If the rescue plan is approved tomorrow that's the safest bet specially in Australia.

People borrow first before they invest and spend to help the economy recover.

The Australian property market won't crash to hurt the banks badly. The supply and demand imbalance will protect the banks. The worst for the banks is over.

Look out for BHP around Jan-Feb. That might be a good time to get in hard.