Target value for KNL

I have been holding for about 6 months now, and we all waiting finance...!

I have read some discussion about target SP, based upon MC estimate which was based on "nominal" AU$100M value from either half the NPV from BFS, or capital cost of Epanko....

I am looking from a different angle, as operational target price based on EPS and PE...

My 'rough' figures are below...

BFS suggests EBITDA is US$33.6M for 15 years...

If we assume AUD = US$0.70, AND 100% DEBT finance, then BEST CASE is:

AU$48M p.a. earnings
AU$110M debt (loan) - assume say 5% with principal/interest over 10 years

AU$13.7M p.a. loan repayments

AU$34.3M p.a. gross profit (48-13.7)

AU$1.0 p.a. royalties (3%)
AU$10.0 p.a. tax (30%)

leaves AU$23.3M NETT PROFIT...

I am not sure what a suitable graphite sector PE is...??

For simplicity, say a conservative PE of 5... the MC would be AU$116M...

With 170M shares, that's $0.68 SP...

You can make further assumptions for the BEST CASE as below:

PE_5 SP = $0.68
PE_10 SP = $1.37
PE_15 SP = $2.05

Now - if you take it back a notch, and introduce some form of mild CR...

Say issue of 25% of shares... that's another 42.5M shares..

The figures above would be

PE_5 SP = $0.55
PE_10 SP = $1.10
PE_15 SP = $1.65

Obviously these are long term targets, for 'operational' phase of the mine, so I would set my short term targets based on increments of my long term target... subject to how much de-risking has been done.

... since I am a novice investor... I would greatly appreciate comments on my methods/calcs...

Cheers,

BF